The Outsider Perspective Issue 427 | The Beltway Outsiders

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Good Friday Morning! Except for Democrats getting run over by the avalanche of Trump executive orders. While there are other important orders, one of the funniest ones is related to the wildfires in California. Trump entitled this one: “Putting People over Fish: Stopping Radical Environmentalism to Provide Water to Southern California.”

Maybe if Gavin Newsom had working fire hydrants or could respond to a natural disaster, these kinds of things wouldn’t have happened. But here we are.

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This week, I’m writing about how politics has been characterized by two different impulses pulling in opposite directions for the last twenty years. Trump may be in the process of breaking the stalemate. I’ll discuss that and more below, with links to follow.

Quick Hits:

I’ve decided to buy some stock in the Obama divorce stories in the political rumor mill. Not a lot of stock, but I’m not at zero anymore. Here’s the topline thesis: the Bidens are burning everyone as they leave the scene, and that includes the Obamas. The obvious thing people point to is Michelle’s absences at the Carter funeral and inauguration. On Megyn Kelly’s show, she and the Ruthless crew (comprised mostly of former GOP Senate staffers) opined that the Obama marriage rumor mill was spinning again because of the Bidens. Note what other active stories are happening this week, too: Kamala Harris’s marriage is allegedly on the rocks, and the Biden/Pelosi families openly sniping at each other. Both of those are likely Biden-related leaks. We know that Michelle Obama hates Hunter Biden’s guts. In her defense, her view of Hunter is not that different from mine – he’s a trash human being who ruins people’s lives, specifically Michelle’s close friend, Kathleen Buhle, who divorced Hunter. The Bidens know this and hate everyone who doesn’t like Hunter. Dan Turrentine heavily implied to Mark Halperin thatthe Biden family issues were used as a threat by Obama/Pelosi/Clinton to keep Biden out of the race in 2016. That brings us to the other weird story: Jennifer Aniston randomly denied rumors she was having an affair with Barack Obama in October 2023. This story dropped at roughly the same time the NYT/NBC News and others were reporting the first Democratic freakout about Biden running due to age/health reasons. Knowing what we know now, the “Dem freakout” rumors from “Democrat sources” were most likely coming from the Obama/Pelosi world. What about the Jennifer Aniston stories? Who sourced that? The Aniston rumors returned this week. Are the Biden’s leaking the Aniston/Obama story? Is there anything there? No idea. But I do think the Bidens are trying to burn everyone on their way out. Mediaite dropped a report that Biden spent his final hours in a “dark mood” and “angry” at everyone who forced him out. If you’ve read this far, thanks for reading the conspiracy hour musings. Please don’t touch my red yarn on the conspiracy board on your way out.
Politico ran a story saying that Trump’s staff is mad at Elon Musk. Here’s a quick rubric for all negative Elon Musk stories like this one—they’re all sourced back to Steve Bannon, who hates Elon Musk. Mark Halperin and Mark Caputo both reflected this view when they discussed the story on 2way.
Something to monitor: Donald Trump wants to reduce energy prices, which he believes will relieve inflation pressures, and encourage the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates. Remember, the Federal Reserve is still trying to fight inflation, and Trump wants lower rates. It’ll be a difficult needle to thread, and that’s with food prices drifting back up again.

Where you can find me this week

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Horse Race Ep. 019: Would Biden Have Won? | Elections To Watch In 2025

Joe Biden Attacks The Constitution On His Way Out – Conservative Institute

Biden’s Final Betrayal – Conservative Institute

Donald Trump’s Birthright Citizenship Executive Order Will Fail – Conservative Institute

Trump Sends Democrats Into A Wildnerness

A thought I’ve had bouncing around my brain since the election concerns the direction of the country. Are we shifting toward liberalism or conservatism? It’s a tricky question to answer, primarily because our prominent theories on American politics and elections are being tossed to the side.

One of the primary theories you learn about elections and American history in college surrounds cycles. Every country that’s ever existed believed it had cycles, and America is no different. The basic idea is this: an insurgent politician tilts the government on its head in a new direction. A successor follows this politician, and the country rubberbands back to the other party for an answer. Then, the insurgent’s party returns to power with a tired version of the first version.

After that, the cycle repeats.

The classic example is recent: Ronald Reagan swept the country with new ideas, bringing the country hope and being broadly popular. His successor, George H. W. Bush, solidified Reaganism but wasn’t as popular. Clinton provided the response, and George W. Bush was a tired retread of Reaganism. The cycles repeat with Obama sweeping the scene.

Except, that hasn’t happened.

Obama’s coalition hasn’t taken hold. The signs of its failure were present in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. Americans showed deep dissatisfaction with Obama in both elections, even as Obama got reelected in 2012 over a flailing Romney.

What we’re getting instead is a rejection of liberalism, similar to what we got after the wild excesses of the 1960s. Liberals have built up in their minds that John F. Kennedy was some saint of a president everyone should aspire to, but given his personal and political failings, he wrecked the Democratic Party. And if Kennedy failed some, LBJ was a Titanic-level disaster in comparison.

Here’s how bad Democratic excesses were in the 1960s: without Watergate, we’d be talking about Richard Nixon in the same revered air as Ronald Reagan. From 1968 to 1992, a 24-year period, Democrats held the White House for four years—Carter. And the Carter presidency was so bad that the stench of Watergate didn’t stop Americans from running back to Republicans from 1980 to 1992.

Trump gets a lot of comparisons, but his accurate comparison is Nixon. Except in Trump’s case, he survived his Watergate (Russiagate / J6) won re-election, and is now more popular than ever. Biden is going the way of Carter, and Obama is on the sideline like a Kennedy, losing influence as his party goes insane.

Sean Trende got into this idea in his most recent column:

What I’ve come to believe, however, is that what we really see over the course of American history is something more akin to an enduring conservative majority. Note, however, that conservative there is spelled with a small c. Americans fundamentally like stability; our version of a revolution comes in elections where one side or the other rocks the boat too violently.

This is why change in this country comes in short spasms before being shut down – and it’s been this way for quite some time. In 1888, voters gave Republicans unified control of government for the first time in decades. The party so aggressively pursued its vision of “a school on every hilltop and no saloon in the valley” that in the next midterm election, they lost an astonishing 90 House seats during a time of peace and prosperity. In 1912, a split in the Republican Party led to a substantial Democratic trifecta; the spate of legislating was rewarded by Democrats losing 60 House seats in 1914. Flurries of legislative activity from 1933-1938, 1965-66, and 2009-10 all led to Americans becoming uneasy about the rate of change emanating from Washington.

But it’s also unclear if “Trumpism” will last, either. We’ve yet to see an impact where Trump flips nominal voters into steady Republican ones.

If you take this view, the post-Bush years have been weird. Obama’s progressivism pushed the country hard to the left, Biden tried pushing in the same direction, and Trumpism is hammering away in the opposite direction. By the end of Trump’s term in 2028, we’ll have experienced 20 years of this back-and-forth.

The weird thing about Trump losing in 2020 is that he switched Vice Presidents. JD Vance gives Trump a successor in a way that Pence did not. Obama wanted Clinton as his successor, but that failed. His second possibility, Joe Biden, is leaving as a disgrace. Harris was an unmitigated disaster. Where does that shattered Obama coalition go now?

Trump has defeated the Clintons, Biden, and Harris. Trump succeeded Obama. The Democratic Party desperately needs a reset moment, with new leadership away from all those names. Pelosi and Schumer are aging out. Obama has no answers (if those divorce rumors are true, Obama’s legacy will get hit by a sledgehammer).

It’s not guaranteed that Trump’s momentum will continue. But the Republican Party is much younger and capable of pulling a multi-generational run here. During a recent 2Way broadcast, all the major networks were up. CNN, Fox News, and CBS News all showed Trump talking, with Vance and Rubio making appearances. MSNBC had Jim Clyburn on air.

I genuinely don’t know where the Democratic Party goes. There’s no clear path forward. That doesn’t stop them from winning; Jimmy Carter came out of nowhere. However, one party has direction and successors, while the other does not.

When trying to chart the direction of American politics, it’s easier to see a path forward with clear successors, ideas, and a vibrant base. Republicans have that with Trump, and Democrats have nothing.

Links of the week

Sensible Strings for California Fire Aid: How to help the state prevent worse wildfire damage in the future. – WSJ Editorial Board

There Has Been A Massive Shift On Immigration, The Majority Of Americans Believe Illegals Should Be Deported – Harry Enten, CNN

The Left Isn’t Dead Yet. But It’s Getting There. – Ruy Teixiera, The Liberal Patriot

Democrats Have Lost The Ability To Talk To Other Humans Because They Introduced Identity Politics – Greg Gutfeld, Fox News

The Democratic Party “Left Me And It Left Working Class People” – NYC Mayor Eric Adams

Trump orders release of JFK, RFK and MLK assassination records – AP

Press Outlets Accuse Pete Hegseth of Domestic Abuse, but His Ex-Wife Nukes Them – Red State

Media’s Regurgitation Of Baseless Hegseth Allegations Prove They Learned Nothing Post-Election – The Federalist

Despite Biden Pardon, Fauci Still Faces Legal Perils. Here They Are. – RealClearInvestigations

The End of DEI: Trump is ending racial preferences, and America will be better because of it. – Coleman Hughes, The Free Press

It’s Not Just Red Dye No. 3. It’s All Our Stuff. We no longer use whale oil for lighting. Why use PFAS to make things nonstick? Time to demand healthier products. – Joshua Lachter, The Free Press