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Good Friday Morning! Especially to the newest star of the internet: baby pigmy hippo Moo Deng. The tiny two-month-old hippo took the internet by storm after multiple videos came out of her running around and causing baby hippo chaos. Moo Deng means “bouncy pig,” and the Thai Zoo she’s in has become an international hot spot, with tourists pouring in to see the new celebrity in town.
While that’s adorable, on the other end, we have the latest Gen Z beauty trend of “eating dirt.” Calling themselves “crunchers,” the people consider themselves “soil-connoisseurs” and proclaim the many benefits of eating dirt. This proves that while the internet can give you adorable bouncy pigs, you turn around, and humanity is literally eating dirt. The internet giveth and taketh away.
This week, I’m going to cover some of the most recent reporting on the Harris campaign and how it’s taking more heat for not conducting interviews. Axios started counting, much to the chagrin of the Harris campaign—links to follow.
Quick Hits:
- Whatever the state of the race in the North Carolina governor’s race starting the day on Thursday, Democrats are a near-lock to win that state now. NC GOP Nominee Mark Robinson got hit with a pair of stories from CNN and Politico that effectively nuked his campaign from orbit. At the time of this writing, I don’t think anything will be left from the flaming wreckage. I can feel the radiation fallout in North Carolina here in Tennessee. The allegations are so bad that I have no intention of explaining them here. Suffice it to say that his political career is likely over.
- A few weeks ago, I wrote about conservatism and how the Reagan coalition failed during the Great Financial Crisis. Fixing conservatism requires dealing with 07-09. It’s something the David Frenchs of the world don’t understand. Semafor published an interview with author David Rubenstein, who has a new book examining presidents. In it, he interviewed George W. Bush, among others. In that, Bush started talking about populism and the current moment. I found it fascinating because George W. Bush and I are in total agreement. Bush said: “I listened to (Hank) Paulson and (Ben) Bernanke and spent your money to bail out the guys who created the instruments in the first place, which is an absolute political disaster,” Bush said. “You wonder why populism is on the rise. It starts with taking taxpayers’ money and giving it to the powerful. It really irritated a lot of Americans, and they haven’t gotten over it yet. That’s just part of it; there’s a lot of other reasons why. But we’ve had candidates say, “You’re mad, I’m going to make you madder.” As opposed to, “You’re mad, I have some solutions to make you less mad.” We’re kind of in the madder stage, where people are exploiting the anger as opposed to dealing with it like leaders should.”
- The Federal Reserve shocked most economists, but not markets, when it cut by 50 basis points. The number surprised me, though I suppose it shouldn’t have because Nick Timiraos signaled a 50 basis point cut was on the table on the 17th (a piece I should have read more carefully). There are a variety of ways you can read this move: 1) It’s an admission they should have cut in July; 2) The Fed fears there is greater softness in the labor market than numbers are telling; 3) It’s a political move ahead of the election; 4) Corporate debate, specifically commercial real estate looms and the need fast cuts to get ahead of that; 5) Government interest rates won’t let them keep rates this high anymore. I’ve heard thoughts on all of these points and haven’t decided how to think yet. The Fed cutting rates faster than it raised them is fascinating. What happens if inflation data goes up? There are a lot of questions, but Wall Street got what it wanted.
- New York Magazine reporter Olivia Nuzzi is on leave after her employer learned she had a “romantic relationship“with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Conservatives on X/Twitter were quick to point out Nuzzi had written a piece about going hiking with RFK Jr. back in November 2023. I quoted extensively from a piece she wrote in the spring about the deteriorating health/mental capacity of Joe Biden. At this point, I’d probably believe any headline you pitched me about RFK Jr. It’s all mad libs with him, and anything is believable.
Where you can find me this week
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Horse Race Ep: 009 – Latest Trump vs Harris Polls | Teamsters Don’t Endorse | 2024 vs 2020 vs 2016
God Spares America, Again – Conservative Institute
Israel’s Beeper Bombs Is A Reminder To Secure U.S. Supply Lines – Conservative Institute
Israel Shock Strikes Give Them Advantage Over Hezbollah – Conservative Institute
Undefined Versus Everywhere
Axios published a weird story. If this were a Republican story, the narrative would be that Republicans hide from the press/transparency. But with the Harris campaign, it’s a “strategy.”
The top-line takeaway is this: “The Harris-Walz ticket is on pace to do fewer interviews and press conferences than any major party’s presidential pairing in modern U.S. history.” Axios cuts out “partisan” interviews and only counts since Harris entered the race 59 days ago. They said:
- Local T.V. interviews: Trump, 7; Vance, 15; Harris, 1; Walz, 3.
- National print publications: Trump, 1; Vance, 8; Harris, 1; Walz, 0.
- National T.V. interviews: Trump, 2; Vance, 24; Harris, 1; Walz, 1.
- Press conferences: Trump, 3; Vance, 12; Harris, 0; Walz, 0. (Vance’s press conferences often cater to local reporters and his staffers limit follow-up questions, as The New York Times has noted.)
Harris continues to promise more interviews but is not doing anything. Her new promise is that she’ll show up for more local interviews, which could happen, but there’s no evidence of it.
Prior to the Biden-Harris campaign structure, any presidential candidate who had the debate performance outcome Harris got wouldn’t stop going on the media—Obama, Romney, McCain, Bush, any of them. If they delivered a massive victory in a debate and had access to this many interviews and press conferences, they’d do nonstop television.
Instead, Harris held a “town hall” in Michigan with Oprah. The town hall was run by Oprah, who endorsed Harris and spoke at the DNC. The audience was comprised of the most ardent Harris supporters. It’s a campaign event that they’re pretending is a town hall for anyone to watch on YouTube.
It’s the most controlled and micromanaged campaign in modern history. It may work, but the cracks are still there.
The Liberal Patriot, run by Ruy Texiara and his colleagues (of the Emerging Democratic Majority fame), published two pieces worth considering.
- Harris’s Working-Class Problem: The Democratic Achilles’ heel remains.
- As Erie County Goes: Erie County, PA has voted for the winner in the last four presidential elections. What does it look like for 2024?
The essence of both pieces is similar: Harris doesn’t make the same mistakes as Clinton, but she’s below where Biden was in many of these areas. Trump is making his own mistakes – the state GOP in many of these battlegrounds is a mess, complete with infighting and incompetence. This race is increasingly not about which campaign is better but which one makes the mistakes that matter least.
There’s a growing theory among Democratic observers of the race that maybe Trump’s performance in the national polls can be explained by him winning back minority voters like Black, Hispanic, and Jewish voters in blue cities, which will boost his national numbers but not help in battleground states.
For instance, they believe that Trump performs better in places like New York and California. Theoretically, this gives him better polling while suggesting weaker support in battleground states.
That’s certainly possible, but it seems unlikely. Here’s an example: CBS News went to Nevada and visited a few restaurants (the classic: N.Y. reporter visits swing state diner), trying to find Trump and Harris supporters. She found plenty of Trump supporters but only one Harris supporter.
There have been similar anecdotal stories elsewhere, too. The Daily Show got a small group of Black voters together, and they were shocked the group was evenly split between Trump and Biden (pre-dropout). Fox News had a post-debate reaction focus group, and the most vocal people on it who were displeased with Harris were the Black panelists.
The reverse of the Democratic theory may be true: Harris’s support is exploding in deeply blue states, which boosts her numbers, but her battleground numbers are lagging.
I can’t figure out how to properly weigh it, but the assassination attempts on Trump matter in this, too. On the one hand, you’ve got Harris claiming to be fighting while hiding and ducking every interview possible while Trump is everywhere with literal assassins on his heels. It is impossible to know how this impacts the turnout, but it can’t get discounted, either.
Why is Trump polling better? His support is locked in. In 2016, Republicans didn’t come around to Trump until the end. In 2020, the pandemic radically altered who responded to polls, which overinflated Biden’s support. In 2024, Trump is starting out in a better polling position, and we see his competitiveness earlier.
Further, the “Trump is doing better in blue states” hypothesis ignores what we’ve seen on the ground. Americans are moving to states that align with their political beliefs, and blue and red states are moving in opposite directions. It’s the great “self-sort.” Where does that leave the battlegrounds?
It’s a great question—no one knows. But we didn’t see signs that Trump was picking up useless voters in 2020, and it seems unlikely that this explains his polling in 2024. What’s more likely is that voters are unsure about Democrats and are looking more heavily at Trump.
The Democratic belief is that if people only saw more of Trump or had the media tell them that Trump is a liar, they’d learn Trump is no good. Trump is everywhere. He’s a known commodity. Nothing is shocking about him anymore. Can you remember the scandal he was in two weeks ago? No? That’s why he’s hitting up every outlet, podcast, and YouTube on earth.
Harris is continuing the “be undefined” campaign. It’s unclear if that’s working. The NYT/Siena poll had Trump +1 pre-debate and post-debate, it’s a tie race. The RealClearPolitics average is +1.9 for Harris. Clinton lost by winning the popular vote by 2.1.
I continue to believe Harris is underperforming critical benchmarks for her campaign. At this rate, she needs a polling error in her favor against Trump to win. In 2016 and 2020, the polls were wrong in Trump’s direction. That doesn’t mean Trump will get the same polling shift as he did before, but it does say the current evidence points to Harris running behind where she needs to be to win.
If Harris is running behind, that probably means she’s lost a critical component: the white working class, which fills the Rust Belt states. The warning signs are there for Harris and for Trump, too. But I’m only seeing one campaign attack their problems: Trump.
Early voting started in Pennsylvania on September 16, Minnesota and Virginia start on September 20, with Vermont following on the 21st and Illinois on the 26th (early voting info for all states here).
As of Friday, September 20, there are 45 days until Election Day. The final innings are here, and votes are being cast. If you need information on registering to vote, go to Vote.gov for your state’s information.
Links of the week
Trump Made Them Do It: The New York Times finds victim-blaming repellent—except when the victim is the former president. – Heather Mac Donald, City Journal
An Arrest for Supreme Court Threats: In one message he said the country needs ‘mass assassinations.’ – WSJ Editorial Board
Some Muslim Americans moving to Jill Stein in potential blow to Kamala Harris – Reuters
Economic worries boost Trump’s Hispanic support in battleground Nevada – John King, CNN
Iranian hackers sent stolen Trump campaign information to people associated with Biden campaign – CNN
The late GOP push to deny Kamala Harris a Nebraska electoral vote – Semafor
Israel turns the pager on terror with ruthless psychological masterstroke against Hezbollah – NYPost
Teamsters Union Endorses No One For President – HuffPost
Why Teamsters members think Trump, not Harris, is the real friend of the working man: By not endorsing either candidate, the reliably blue union may as well be backing Trump – David Marcus, Fox News
Democrats seethe over Teamsters’ decision to not endorse Harris – Washington Times
Next Time Cancel Me for Something I Actually Said – Rich Lowry, National Review
Chicago Public Schools teachers say they were told by administrators to give migrant students passing grades – WGN Radio 720
Ontario Would Be Fifth-Poorest, Quebec Second-Poorest, U.S. State – National Review
[When VOX is admitting this, you know its bad] The scary truth about how far behind American kids have fallen: Students of all ages still haven’t made up the ground they lost during the pandemic. – Vox
Mark Robinson says he’s not dropping out of North Carolina governor’s race after salacious report – Washington Examiner
X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week
Drew Holden on the media not fact checking Harris.
Satire of the week
Diddy: ‘I Will Beat These Charges Senseless’ – Onion
Vatican City Police Unveil New Unit Of Sin-Sniffing Dogs – Onion
Governor Abbott Declares Texas Sanctuary State For Memers – Babylon Bee
California Police Raid Seizes Over 2,000 Memes – Babylon Bee
Secret Service Considers Asking Agents Back to Office at Least Two Days a Week – The Hard Times
Jack Black Already Adding Sims Movie to His IMDb Page – The Hard Drive
Diddy Cellmate Hasn’t Slept A Wink All Night – Waterford Whispers News
Thanks for reading!