If you’d like to read this issue on my website, click here! If you’d like to sign-up, and receive this in your inbox each week, click here! Read past issues here.
Good Friday Morning! Except to the millenial parents who invented the latest craze: baby raves. Yes, you read that right. Parents are going to kid-themed raves to dance, have fun, and be able to do it with their young ones. It’s complete with all the lights and pyrotechnic shows.
The New York Post writes, “On a recent weekend afternoon, the paternal party animals hit the floor — each with a ten-month-old twin strapped to their chest — at Little Ravers, an event in an industrial chic space in Brooklyn drawing thousands on just one Saturday. The fun-loving foursome bounced along to EDM-styled remixes of “Baby Shark” while colored lights swirled around.”
So, if you’re looking for a new family-friendly idea, here you go. Please don’t invite me.
This week, I’ll cover the shift in the trade war between the United States and China—links will follow.
Quick Hits:
- India and Pakistan escalate to the brink of war. Russia-Ukraine, and Israel-Hamas would become backburners if these two countries went to war. They’re both nuclear-armed and hate each other. A recent terrorist attack in Kashmir has the two at each other’s throats.
- The American Almanac is growing! I want to express my continuing thanks to those of you who subscribe, share, and help us grow. You can subscribe here for free.
Where you can find me this week
Please subscribe, rate, and review The Horse Race on YouTube — the reviews help listeners, and readers like you find me. Make sure to sign up for the Conservative Institute’s daily newsletter and The American Almanac.
The United States Holds Economic Ruin Over China’s Communist Leaders – Conservative Institute
Mike Patrick (1944-2025) Defined Football Sportscasting For A Generation – Conservative Institute
Pete Hegseth Need To Get It Together Or Get Out – Conservative Institute
White House Claims Of De-Escalation Were Correct… Now The Real Work Starts
In negotiations, no one wants to admit defeat. Everyone wants to claim they won the round. It helps to know who has the bigger stick in talks. That’s where we are on Trump, tariffs, and China. To kick the week off, Trump and Bessent said they expected “de-escalation” in the trade war.
The American press was quick to claim that “Trump blinked.” There was no real proof of that, but it’s the claim. We’re ending the week on this note: Bloomberg: “China may exempt some US goods from tariffs as costs rise.”
Trump was telegraphing what his negotiators were telling him earlier in the week. If that’s the case, let’s go back to the original reporting and see what was said. Here’s CNBC:
Bessent also insisted that, despite the U.S. ratcheting up tariffs on Chinese imports to 145% and China retaliating with 125% duties on American goods, the goal of Trump’s policy “isn’t to decouple.”
The U.S. Cabinet secretary noted that negotiating with China is likely to be “a slog.”
But neither side “thinks the status quo is sustainable,” Bessent added.
Later Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed Bessent’s positive outlook toward talks with China, though neither official suggested that those negotiations have actually begun.
Leavitt said in a press briefing that Trump wants people to know that “we’re doing very well in respect to a potential trade deal with China.”
Trump is “setting the stage for a deal with China,” she said, “and the ball is moving in the right direction.”
Asked if Trump has spoken directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Leavitt said she had nothing to share.
The White House is playing a cat-and-mouse game with negotiations with China. The press wants to say that the two sides aren’t talking, but that’s not what the White House is saying.
Back-channel negotiations are obviously underway. Nothing is happening publicly. If you look at any large-scale crisis like this in the last 50-100 years, the history books will tell you about the behind-the-scenes, but that’s never known at the moment.
Trump telegraphed what he knew. Does that mean a deal is imminent? No, Bessent thinks it will take time, and you never want to tell the Chinese you want a quick deal.
The only fast thing this White House likely wants is deals with Asian countries to surround China. Any deal on that front that includes India will be seen as the best outcome because shifting production to India instead of China gives the U.S. an even stronger hand.
In the meantime, despite the turmoil in U.S. markets, our economy is rocking right along. Jobless claims, which are measured weekly, are in the same range they’ve been for months. The GDP Now model from the Atlanta Fed is indicating a bad first quarter for the United States. We’ll see the first official number at the end of the month.
In China, they’re scrambling in the opposite direction. China is trying to jumpstart its economy. Exports (aka sales) to the United States are at a standstill. In response, China’s version of the Fed started injecting new rounds of printed cash into its system, trying to generate economic churn.
China has been conducting its version of quantitative easing for several years as it fights an ongoing deflation crisis (aka recession). Trump’s halting of China’s primary revenue source is putting even more stress on the Chinese economy.
China will blink on a deal because it must. If it doesn’t, the CCP faces utter ruin. China’s deflation crisis tells us that Chinese consumers aren’t buying anything, which is one of many reasons prices are falling there.
And all of this is before we get to the United States’s nuclear option: halting foot exports to China. If we wanted to, we could starve the CCP out.
The question, then, is what does Trump do with this leverage? The White House is correct in noting that they have the upper hand. But even if you hold a straight flush in cards, you can still lose if you misplay your hand.
That’s the question for this White House. It’s not enough simply to acquire leverage over other countries. You have to deploy it. Suppose Trump signs a poor deal, and the United States experiences a recession. In that case, this would have been a gigantic waste of time, resources, and effort. If he can truly claim a win, then he’ll prove his critics correct.
There are warning signs that shipments halting from China could cause shortages in the United States. That doesn’t mean you should go and buy toilet paper—that’s an American-made product. However, it does mean American consumers will have to work harder to find specific products.
China still faces an existential threat, but some kinds of talks are obviously happening. Whatever deal happens will determine how history views this trade war.
Compiling leverage and doing nothing with is like stacking draft picks and never using them. You want more draft picks to acquire more players. But if you never take players, or the players you pick are back, you’re not accomplishing much by acquiring more draft capital.
Links of the week
Princeton’s war on civil rights – City Journal.
China Can’t Go It Alone – Tablet Magazine
Alito’s right to warn: Court’s knee-jerk habit of slapping Trump will cost it dearly – NYPost
To win midterms, Democrats must confront 2024 failures – Unherd
Trump to target ActBlue in presidential memorandum – Politico
X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week
Nick Saban on dealing with setbacks like some players experience in the draft.
Satire of the week
Even Investigators Not Sure Why They Keep Releasing Details Of Gene Hackman’s Death – Onion
Easter Bunny Dead After Meeting With JD Vance – Babylon Bee
REPORT: Woman’s Boyfriend Stuck in Duvet Cover – Reductress
Trade Wars Service Medal delayed by China tariffs: “The supplier increased the cost by 145%.” – Duffel Blog
Teens Vaping Behind Vatican Accidentally Elect New Pope – The Hard Times
House Democrats Draft Incredibly Powerful Social Media Post – The Hard Drive
Rome Police Issue Counterfeit Communion Wafer Warning In Lead Up To Pope’s Funeral – Waterford Whispers News
Thanks for reading!