The Outsider Perspective Issue 424 | The Beltway Outsiders

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Good Friday Morning! Except for Joe Biden’s rural broadband initiative. Four years ago, the White House announced a major program to provide broadband access to rural Americans nationwide. Biden campaigned on this promise in 2020 and repeated it continually. Under his infrastructure bill, we’ve shelled out $42 billion for the program.

Here’s how many people we’ve signed up for broadband through this program: zero.

I’m not making that number up.

Meanwhile, in the same period, Elon Musk sent thousands of rockets into space via Starlink to provide the internet to everyone on Earth. Current estimates say there are 5,549 Starlink satellites in orbit, with more being added to replace older satellites and expand coverage.

Fun note: Elon Musk and Starlink applied for grants to get some of the cash set aside for private companies working on the rural broadband initiative ($900M). Starlink was denied three times. Musk’s Starlink hit 4 million subscribers in September 2024.

This week, I’m going to discuss the major issues facing the new Trump administration in 2025—links to follow.

Quick Hits:

It’s still early, but it appears the Cybertruck explosion in Las Vegas was not connected to the New Orleans terrorist attack. The NYPost reports that the perpetrator killed himself with a gun in the vehicle after setting off the explosives. Additionally, they add that he had broken up with his wife on Christmas after she accused him of infidelity.

Where you can find me this week

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Horse Race Ep. 018: Biden’s Pardon Crisis | Trump Transition Is Popular | Dems Civil War Brewing…

Jay Bhattacharya Is The Perfect Nominee To Restore Trust – Conservative Institute

Trump Is Cleaning House Before Entering Office – Conservative Institute

Is Biden Trying To Start A War In Iran? – Conservative Institute

2025 And The Road Ahead For Trump

Welcome to 2025, the halfway mark of the 2020s. It’s crazy to think we’re halfway through a decade that kicked off with the COVID-19 pandemic, and that part of our history is starting to get memory-holed.

The stretch from 2010 to 2020 is equally crazy. We start off in 2010 with the backlash to Obama and the ACA and wrap up with Donald Trump as president, multiple impeachments, and everything that followed.

While it’s impossible to predict everything that will happen this year, some fundamental issues should carry the year and possibly further. I’ll list them out, and then we’ll do some further explanation on some of them:

Inflation: I discussed how inflation wasn’t solved a few weeks ago. I won’t belabor it here. Trump’s tariff plans, the Fed’s rate cut trajectory, and the overall health of the U.S. economy will be top of mind for most people. Trump will get an initial boost from people seeing the economy better on the right. We’ll see how long that lasts.
Supreme Court replacements: I’ve also touched on this in the past. Alito is rumored to step down at the end of this term, possibly the next. This would bring Senate nomination proceedings in the summer or fall of 2025/26, with a new nominee on the bench shortly thereafter. Some believe Thomas follows after that, which is still too soon to call for me. If this happens, Trump would lock the Supreme Court into a conservative majority for the next 20 years, possibly longer. If any liberal justice steps down in the next four years, the Democratic Party will reach new heights of fearmongering around the highest court in the land.
Iran / War In Gaza: American hostages are still being held. Hamas has people in the UN. There’s a lot here. More below.
War in Ukraine: Trump wants a negotiated settlement. Does Russia?
Domestic Terrorism: The New Orleans attack raises the specter of ISIS-style attacks on U.S. soil once more. Trump has to respond to this.
Remaking the federal agencies: Trump wants a shakeup. The success or failure of his policies largely depends on his nominees pushing through significant changes across the board. Whatever crisis is occurring, the agencies involved and Trump’s changes will color those events.
Republican House Majority: Trump needs Mike Johnson to be Speaker of the House because no one else is capable of pulling together a majority. The “Always No” caucus has nothing and no one to offer as a replacement. If Trump can’t control the House with Johnson, he will struggle to get any agenda passed.

We also have at least one more major Biden scandal to ride out: his remaining pardons. Does Biden hand out “preemptive pardons” like candy? I tend to think he does, though he’ll limit these pardons to his friends and those who stuck by him while leaving other Democrats who sided with Harris/Obama/Pelosi out to dry.

Middle East Flare-Up:

The war in Gaza and the influence of Iran is a thornier issue, however. And it could be getting worse. Barak David at Axios reports that Biden discussed the United States striking Iran’s nuclear sites if Tehran pushed for a nuclear bomb before January 20, 2025.

Biden and his national security team discussed various options and scenarios during the meeting, which took place roughly one month ago, but the president did not make any final decision, according to the sources.

A U.S. official with knowledge of the issue said the White House meeting was not prompted by new intelligence or intended to end in a yes or no decision from Biden. Instead, it was part of a discussion on “prudent scenario planning” of how the U.S. should respond if Iran were to take steps like enriching Uranium to 90% purity before January 20, the official said.

Another source said there are currently no active discussions inside the White House about possible military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Left unsaid in this reporting is why Iran wants a nuclear weapon by January 20 and is pushing hard for it – the election of Donald Trump. For Iran, there’s no guessing about Trump’s stance towards them. The free pass they’ve gotten with Biden is over. They need a bomb for leverage against Trump.

If you look at the calendar, these meetings took place in the White House immediately after the election. Biden is afraid Iran will make a move. The White House could argue Trump’s election put “unnecessary pressure on Iran, pushing them towards a bomb, which forced Biden to act.” Given how poorly the Biden administration has run other things, I’m not overly optimistic about them pulling the levers of war in striking Iran.

It’s also a weird turn for the White House because they continue to be friendly towards Iran regarding sanctions. Pivoting from friendly terms to outright open hostilities would be bizarre.

However, given the lack of insight into who is running the White House, I legitimately don’t know what decision they will make. If Biden decides to strike Iran, it would open the Trump presidency with a major crisis and little opportunity to drive things until Trump gets sworn in.

I’m not overly against a strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities. I’d just prefer the new administration be in place before conducting something like that. Biden would create chaos and then leave.

Regardless, it does show that this will be one of Trump’s early challenges in a second term. Inflation will follow closely behind that, as the media will switch towards covering the economy more negatively. Other events will rise and fall, but these should be the more significant issues that color Trump’s choices moving forward.

Links of the week

Jimmy Carter was the president who made Ronald Reagan necessary – George Will

Trio charged in Germany for pro-Russia plot targeting US bases in Bavaria – Stripes

Has Europe’s Islamist Threat Come to America? – The Free Press

From college campuses to Afghanistan, we let Islamic terrorism rise again – NYPost

Here’s Who Biden’s FBI Decided To Persecute Rather Than Hunt Down Real Terrorists – The Federalist

House Report Discloses New Information on Unsolved J6 Pipe Bomber: House Republicans reveal stonewalling, major security lapses, and misrepresentations by top law enforcement officials related to the still at-large J6 pipe bomber – Julie Kelly

Trump Should Erect an Arch for America’s 250th: His plans to mark the semiquincentennial in 2026 offer an appropriate opportunity to do so in Washington. – City Journal

X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week

Ross Douthat on the Rotherham scandal and how he noted the issue a decade ago.

Satire of the week

Man Decides Eating Lunch Without Headphones On Counts As Meditating – Onion