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Good Friday Morning! Except for Joe Biden and the poor staffers working for him. While touring Pennsylvania, Biden started chatting with the press while waiting at the airport. He decided to tell a story about his Uncle Brosie, who died in World War II as a passenger on a plane that crashed into the ocean. Except, according to Biden, it might have been cannibals that did poor Uncle Brosie in. Biden told the reporters, “He got shot down in an area where there were a lot of cannibals in New Guinea at the time.”
Biden told this story twice. Biden then left for his campaign stop. Later on, during a White House press briefing, the White House admitted the obvious: there is no evidence Biden’s uncle got eaten by cannibals in the Pacific Theater. I’m not even sure they have proof of cannibals in that specific area.
I am never quitting politics: God Bless America and our stupid politicians.
This week, I’m going to go through the Israel-Iran war and focus on what Iran is aiming at in this conflict, aside from the obvious point of inflicting harm on Israel – links to follow.
Quick Hits:
- The WSJ had a lengthy piece that reported on the significant increase we’re witnessing in various cancers among younger and younger people. The headline is: “Cancer Is Striking More Young People, and Doctors Are Alarmed and Baffled: Researchers are trying to figure out what is making more young adults sick, and how to identify those at high risk.” The critical numbers are: “Cancer is hitting more young people in the U.S. and around the globe, baffling doctors. Diagnosis rates in the U.S. rose in 2019 to 107.8 cases per 100,000 people under 50, up 12.8% from 95.6 in 2000.” The big ones that are developing more among younger people are colon, pancreatic, appendix, stomach, and uterine cancer. There’s a slight uptick in breast cancer, as well. But there’s some thought that’s happening because of increased screenings. As I was reading this piece, I was reminded of the newsletter I wrote last summer on autism. It was based on a piece in The Free Press that deeply explored the subject. We’re witnessing an unprecedented surge in autism cases (50-fold in the last 33 years). In that piece, I wrote that part of the blame I’d blame on microplastics, which are everywhere. Essentially, in the past 20-30 years, we’ve witnessed two health pandemics increase in the form of cancer and autism, and we have no idea why it is happening. The COVID-19 pandemic was quick and sudden. Cancer and autism are things that have slow-boiled to the point where we’re hearing steam now. There are no answers, either. But in the next decade, it wouldn’t shock me if we witnessed most preventative screenings drop the age range into the mid-30s.
- Last week, I wrote a column for the Conservative Institute covering NPR’s meltdown over one of its veteran journalists detailing how the company had lost its way. The journalist’s name is Uri Berliner, and he did that writeup at The Free Press. In response, NPR suspended Berliner, and he resigned (his resignation letter here). However, the meltdown at NPR hasn’t finished. Many of the far-left reporters there continue shrieking about Berliner’s essay and, in the process, proving every point of his essay true. The focus on NPR has also highlighted the change at the top. NPR’s new CEO is Katherine Maher, who has managed to state every stereotypical far-left talking point you can imagine. Christopher Rufo took her to task in City Journal. While Berliner has rejected GOP calls to defund NPR, this news cycle has given new life to the concept and will likely make defunding NPR a standard Republican belief.
- One of the reader questions I’ve gotten recently involves cyber attacks on container ships, suggesting that nefarious actors or a cyber attack did the MV Dali crash at the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. Is that possible? Sure. Is there any evidence of that right now? Not really. Chief Makoi is a chief engineer on these kinds of ships and discusses the possibility of hacking a large container ship here. Long story short: the vessel must be connected via satellite or reliant on hackable onboard electronic systems. There’s no evidence either was the case here. That could change; the FBI has opened a criminal investigation due to those killed in the crash. According to reports, “The investigation into the collapse will focus in part on whether the crew of the Dali left the port knowing the freighter had serious problems with its systems.” That sounds like a negligence-style investigation, not malicious intent. Again, that could change, but it’s not the message you’d expect from a cyberattack investigation. There are also no reports of a third-party group claiming responsibility for the ship crash. Compare that to the ongoing attacks we’re experiencing from Russia on infrastructure. WIRED published a lengthy piece exploring a Russian hacking group connected to Russian special forces. That group has hacked water infrastructure in Texas, Ukraine, and France. In February, I wrote a CI column going through the intel reports that said the Russians and Chinese were highly focused on knocking out American soft targets like water, electricity, and more via cyberattacks. It’s not hard to pull off, either through cyberattacks or a physical one. Multiple states lost 911 services this week after a worker physically cut a fiber optic wire while installing a light pole. That was a mistake, but it highlights how fragile these things are.
Where you can find me this week
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The Obama-Biden Iran Doctrine Is Dead – Let Israel Strike Iran – Conservative Institute
Biden Is Misfortune’s Muse, He Never Gets The Answer Right – Conservative Institute
Biden’s Foreign Policy Runs Through The Gas Pump – Conservative Institute
Israel vs Iran: The Key To Everything Is A Deal With Saudi Arabia.
This is one of those weeks where I’ve had to wait until events finished happening to write on a Thursday evening. The big story in the past week is Iran launching an attack on Israel. While I was working on this, Israel decided to launch its counterattack against Iran.
What is notable about Israel’s counterattack on Iran is how Iran is taking it. Early on, Iranian state media was on full red alert. After a while, they pivoted hard and claimed there was no missile attack at all. By the end of the evening, they were claiming it was a peaceful morning and no threat was around.
The propaganda part of this is the intriguing part. Iran is downplaying Israel’s attack, nearly to the point of Israel not being involved at all. This is not a country interested in getting into a direct war. If anything, the attack Israel launched, which caught Iran off-guard, even though it knew retaliation was likely, has spooked the Iranians.
Downplaying an Israeli attack is an interesting tactic. If Iran wanted to bolster its case that Israel was an evil nation that deserved to be hit, they should play up an attack. Instead, they’re trying to lower the need to respond at all. Whether this strategy holds remains to be seen, but Iran does not appear to want a direct conflict.
The interesting thing about Iran escalating matters is the “why now?” Iran hates Israel, but the escalation hits at an odd moment. That goes for both the October 7th attacks, which Iran aided, and the direct assault on Israel.
As Iran’s attack was underway, an interesting report came out of Israel:
An unnamed official from the Saudi royal family tells the Kan public broadcaster that “any suspicious object” that enters Saudi Arabian airspace is intercepted, an apparent nod toward the kingdom’s alleged role in shooting down Iranian attack drones headed for Israel last night.
The Saudi official also criticized Iran for having “engineered a war in Gaza” in order to destroy the progress it was making in normalizing relations with Israel, Kan reports.
“Iran is a country that sponsors terrorism, and it should have been stopped a long time ago,” Kan quotes the official as saying.
The Abraham Accords established the final goal of normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Jared Kushner wanted this when he negotiated those deals during the Trump administration and called it one of his failures towards the end of his memoirs.
If Israel and Saudi Arabia sign a deal, it would effectively lock out Iran and its allies from the region. Saudi Arabia doesn’t like Israel, either. But they hate Iran, and the Saudis want defense assurances from the United States.
Given that background, an explosive report dropped from the Wall Street Journal on a potential Saudi deal:
The Biden administration is pushing for a long-shot diplomatic deal in coming months that presses Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a new commitment to Palestinian statehood in exchange for diplomatic recognition by Riyadh, U.S. and Saudi officials said.
As inducements to recognize Israel, the White House is offering Riyadh a more formal defense relationship with Washington, assistance in acquiring civil nuclear power and a renewed push for a Palestinian state—a package that U.S. officials say they are in the final stages of negotiating.
Now, for all the talk in this piece about a tough Biden administration making Israel and Netanyahu come to the table on something, the details make it appear that the Israelis and Saudis are eager for a deal. And the Saudis are even setting the bar lower.
One of the roadblocks that the Saudis have raised for years on normalizing relations with Israel is Palestinians. The Saudis claim they want a separate state. In reality, a two-state option died in the Clinton administration. According to Bill Clinton, the Israelis offered a two-state solution and even offered up the Temple Mount – the Palestinians rejected it. Negotiations on that front effectively died after that.
The increasing attacks from Hamas and other terrorist groups killed any appetite in Israel for a two-state solution. And after October 7, support for a two-state solution is at all-time polling lows in Israel.
What’s interesting is that the Saudis don’t sound interested in it either:
Saudi Arabia’s leaders have said for decades that a Palestinian state is a priority, and its top diplomats have said creating a path to a two-state solution is part of their price for normalization. Now, Saudi officials have privately indicated to the U.S. that they might accept verbal assurances from Israel that it would engage in new talks on Palestinian statehood to secure the other parts of the deal of more interest to Riyadh, Saudi officials said.
Asking Israel to agree to talk to the Palestinians at some point in exchange for a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia is a no-brainer. There are other things to be negotiated in such an agreement. However, the significant roadblocks of yesteryear turning into fig leaves is a major development.
That brings us back to the Iranians. They’re playing a tit-for-tat game with Israel, escalating while not trying to escalate. It’s more of a game of trying to polarize the region against Israel. The Palestinians are a flash point that Iran is trying to use against a possible Saudi deal.
It’s not that this is some unique 5D Chess. Iran has used the Palestinians for a long time to polarize the region against Israel. The problem is that after the Abraham Accords were signed at the end of the Trump administration, Iran’s grip was dramatically weakened. First, Trump’s sanctions wrecked the Iranian economy. Second, the normalization of relations between Israel and some Arab countries upended old thinking in the region.
When Biden got into office, he reversed all the progress made under Trump to isolate Iran. He returned to the Obama-era belief that the region needed a stronger Iran to balance out other countries. Obama viewed himself as a Kissinger/Metternich on the global stage who understood and could balance all the nations against each other.
All the Obama-Biden years have done is empower Iran while destabilizing the region. The irony is that Saudi Arabia and Israel, looking at this mess, are more strongly considering an alliance to help eradicate the Iranian threat.
Where do things go from here? A deal with the Saudis is the gold standard for this if you’re in Israel or Saudi Arabia. Biden is pitching it as a hard deal for the Israelis, but the real concession will have to come from the United States. Netanyahu would agree to “talking” to the Palestinians, and the United States would have to agree to some defense agreement with Saudi Arabia.
That carries with it different risks for the United States. On the one hand, you get normalization with Israel and Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, the U.S. military has to help out the Saudis. The extent there is unknown. But I know the Saudis want that more than they want anything to do with the Palestinians.
Another irony in all this: both Israel and Saudi Arabia may wait until after the November elections to see if they can get Trump. Both countries prefer Trump for their own reasons. That would drive the Biden/Obama crowd nuts.
But as we watch all this play out, watch what the Saudis do. They hold a lot of cards, and they hate Iran as much as Israel.
Links of the week
Among the Activists Plotting to Disrupt the DNC: ‘We’ve got to give them a 1968 kind of welcome.’ – Olivia Reingold and Eli Lake, The Free Press
Powell Dials Back Expectations on Rate Cuts: Inflation and hiring have been firmer than expected this year, weakening the case for pre-emptive rate reductions – Nick Timiraos, WSJ
Google fires 28 employees involved in sit-in protest over $1.2B Israel contract – NYPost
Politico: Let’s Face It, Biden Has No Strategy on Iran – Ed Morrissey, Hot Air
Impeachment ‘Whistleblower’ Was in the Loop of Biden-Ukraine Affairs That Trump Wanted Probed – RealClearInvestigations
South Korea Is Running Out of Kids. Is This America’s Future? In countries where men and women don’t trust each other, nobody wants to have babies. – Anna Louie Sussman, The Free Press
Your Constitutional Right to Zyn: The nicotine pouches are hugely popular, have become a culture war issue, and could be the target of a federal crackdown. – Kiran Sampath, The Free Press
Man arrested in crash that killed Cortez Masto adviser entered US illegally, feds say – Reno Gazette Journal
Ronald Reagan Just Saved Israel From Iran’s Attack: In 1986, Sen. Joe Biden mocked as ‘reckless’ the idea of defending against ballistic missiles – Daniel Henninger, WSJ
Why so many of us [Democrats] were wrong about missile defense – Noahpinion
How Fake Is Roman Antiquity? – The Unz Review
NASA confirms space debris that hit Florida home piece of ISS loading equipment – The Washington Examiner
Where Is Planet Nine? Its Hiding Places Are Running Out: The search for a mysterious planetary body beyond Neptune has narrowed down its possible location—if it exists at all – Scientific American
Rat urine is causing uptick in rare disease among New York sanitation workers. – USA Today
COVID Patient’s Infection Lasts Record 613 Days—and Accumulated Over 50 Mutations – Time Magazine
There’s a volcano in Antarctica spewing $6,000 worth of gold dust per day — but you can’t get there – NYPost
Scientists uncover 95 regions of the genome linked to PTSD – The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard
X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week
Satire of the week
White House Gardener Finds Rotting Biden In Compost Bin – Onion
Hillary Clinton Condemns Trump For Paying Hush Money To Political Liabilities Instead Of Just Killing Them – Babylon Bee
World In Shock As Murderous Terrorist State Ignores Warning From Impotent Old Man – Babylon Bee
Americans wondering if we can just get WW3 over with already: Stop talkin’ and start doin’ – Duffel Blog
‘I’ve Been Running Around All Day,’ Says Friend Who Just Drove to Target and Back – Reductress
Neil deGrasse Tyson Gets Into God Debate With Terminally Ill Child in Make-A-Wish Gone Awry – The Hard Times
Man With Anime Girl Tattoo Preemptively Added to Federal Watchlist – The Hard Drive
“Forwarded Many Times” Says Lads WhatsApp Message Containing Content So Vile It’ll Alter Your Brain’s Chemistry Forever – Waterford Whispers News
Thanks for reading!