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Good Friday Morning! Monday marks the first eclipse in the United States since 2017. Hopefully, you have your glasses and everything ready to view it. I’m not in the path of totality this year, but I’m pretty close to it.
The first recorded instance of an eclipse impacting history comes from “The Battle of the Eclipse,” 585 BC. We get the story from Herodotus, who tells how the Medes and Lydians were in a battle, and the eclipse happened in the middle of the battle when “day turned to night.” Both parties took it as a bad omen, stopped fighting, and negotiated a peace that ended a six-year war.
This week, I will touch on a different battle: the war in Ukraine. The reports coming out are bad, and it’s worth covering them in comparison to what gets said in the West about the war—links to follow.
Quick Hits:
- National Democrats got what they wanted this week when the No Labels Party announced it wouldn’t put forth a Presidential candidate. That sigh of relief will be short-lived because RFK Jr. is still in the race. I doubt that RFK Jr. will pull double-digits nationally in November. Still, it’s clear that in states with a core of angry Biden voters on the left, RFK Jr. benefits. The two states at the center of this are Michigan and Minnesota, which have large Muslim populations. And these groups are livid over Biden’s response to Israel’s war in Gaza. Trump is enjoying a slight overperformance in these states because Biden voters are saying they’ll vote for RFK Jr., and he’s getting 10-12% of the vote. Whether or not Trump wins these states is immaterial. If Biden is forced to play defense in these two places, it’s a bad sign for him.
- My favorite piece of the week was over RealClearPolitics. RCP had to defend itself from claims from the New York Times that RCP had taken a “right-wing” turn, was meddling with its averages, and more. As you’ll find, the response is unsparing, and NYT reporting gets thoroughly dismantled.
- Ruy Teixeira, half the author team of the infamous “Emerging Democratic Majority” electoral theory that was gospel during the Obama years, spun off his own blog a while back. In it, he’s been going through all the ways the Democratic Majority is in trouble. For the past three weeks, he’s written up the three areas Democrats need to improve on 1) Become centrist on cultural issues, 2) Promote an agenda of abundance (instead of the lack seen in green talking points), 3) Embrace patriotism and liberal nationalism. I suspect James Carville has read Teixeira’s reports, which led to him going off in the NYT to Maureen Dowd in a column: “A suspicion of mine is that there are too many preachy females” dominating the culture of his party. “‘Don’t drink beer. Don’t watch football. Don’t eat hamburgers. This is not good for you.’ The message is too feminine: ‘Everything you’re doing is destroying the planet. You’ve got to eat your peas.’ “If you listen to Democratic elites — NPR is my go-to place for that — the whole talk is about how women, and women of color, are going to decide this election. I’m like: ‘Well, 48 percent of the people that vote are males. Do you mind if they have some consideration?'” Hilariously enough, this set off the predictable set in the Democratic Party, including AOC.
- McDonalds will start serving Krispy Kreme donuts at all locations. God Bless America. Up next, America is going to conquer France with our fast food.
Where you can find me this week
Please subscribe, rate, and review my podcast on iTunes, Spotify, or Google Play — the reviews help listeners, and readers like you find me in the algorithms. Make sure to sign up for the Conservative Institute’s daily newsletter.
Biden’s Border Disaster Grows – Conservative Institute
Lou Conter (1921 – 2024) – The Last Light Of The Greatest Generation – Conservative Institute
Justice Sotomayor To Resign? Democrats Increasingly Say ‘Yes’ – Conservative Institute
Ukraine Braces Ahead Of Russian Invasion
In February, I wrote two columns for the Conservative Institute about how Ukraine was losing the war. The first described Putin declaring victory, and the second explained how the aid package wouldn’t change anything.
A common refrain in the West is that we aren’t “letting Ukraine win the war.” My challenge to that is simple: What does victory look like? Very few can either define it or plot out a way to get there. There’s a reason for that: Ukraine struggles to do that themselves.
This is no fault of Ukraine; they’re doing the best with what they have and the lack of resources they have to marshal. They’re at an extreme manpower disadvantage, which matters more as we head towards summer. Warm weather signals one thing: a Russian offensive is coming.
Poltico’s European site published a piece exploring Ukraine’s struggles. The title of the piece: “Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing: According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim, and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.”
After a few introductory paragraphs, we get these nuggets from anonymous Ukrainian military officials:
Essentially, everything now depends on where Russia will decide to target its strength in an offensive that’s expected to launch this summer. In a pre-offensive pummeling — stretching from Kharkiv and Sumy in the north to Odesa in the south — Russia’s missile and drone strikes have widely surged in recent weeks, targeting infrastructure and making it hard to guess where it will mount its major push.
And according to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny — the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February — the military picture is grim.
The officers said there’s a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to “penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts,” they said.
“There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.
That Russian offensive is coming. Reuters reports Russia is preparing 100,000 troops, likely for a summer push. The Institute for the Study of War agrees with the summer offensive idea and has pointed out several likely points for that push.
Ukraine lacks the weaponry, troops, and capacity to withstand an offensive. They depend almost exclusively on Russian incompetence, which the Russians have provided in bulk: “According to him, it is only Ukrainian grit and resilience as well as errors by Russian commanders that may now alter the grim dynamics. Mistakes like the one made on Saturday, when Russia launched one of the largest tank assaults on Ukrainian positions since its full-scale invasion began, only to have the column smashed by Ukraine’s 25th Brigade, which took out a dozen tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles — a third of the column’s strength.”
The Ukrainians are quick to add, “Relying on Russian errors is not a strategy.” Russia may fumble the summer offensive. It wouldn’t be the first time the Russians blundered in this war, and it won’t be the last. But that’s not a viable long-term strategy.
In December, Politico reported that the White House was looking to pivot on Ukraine. Biden was starting to believe a negotiated settlement was the only way out. The question I’ve had for a while now is, “What leverage does the White House have?” And even more to the point, that report is over four months old now. What signs do we have that Biden is negotiating at all?
The Congressional stall on Ukrainian aid reflects the paralysis in the White House. No one in the White House, State Department, or Pentagon can suggest a way forward. Congress is understandably asking, “Hold on, what’s happening here?”
We’re now staring down the barrel of a Russian offensive. I don’t mind sending Ukraine more aid to push back on that, but we’re asking them to hold the line with no prospects for an end. Predictably, Ukraine is also having issues getting men for a draft. They need soldiers, and Ukrainians aren’t overly interested in getting drafted in an effort with a high likelihood of death.
Right now, the White House plan is to hope Russia bumbles its way through an offensive that keeps the war in a brutal stalemate. Blaming what happens in the war on Congressional funding is a pure scapegoat play. There’s no strategy, no negotiation attempts, or anything resembling a way to preserve Ukraine for future generations.
This conflict can continue limping along. The United States and Russia have histories of doing precisely that. But in the long term, that benefits no one, especially the people of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russia is amassing troops, ammunition, and resources ahead of summer offensives. Ukraine is digging in with front lines and fortifications. If that offensive comes, look towards Avdiivika, Donetsk Oblast. The Russians are giving priority to that region.
Links of the week
‘I’m 28. And I’m Scheduled to Die in May.’ Some right-to-die activists want everyone to have access to euthanasia—even young people with mental illness. Are they also making suicide contagious? – Rupa Subramanyam, The Free Press
JK Rowling, Joe Rogan and Elon Musk are fuming over Scotland’s hate crime law. – Politico
Biden Loses the Plot on Israel: What we’ve learned from six months of war – Matthew Continetti, Free Beacon
“It’s an Empty Executive Suite” An insider explains what has gone disastrously wrong with Boeing. – Christopher Rufo, City Journal
Deejay T: Trump’s Spotify list and Behind the Curtain: How Trump’s mind works – Axios
Up close and too personal with America’s fentanyl epidemic — where New York is ground zero – Douglas Murray, NYPost
The ‘Tectonic Shift’ in Media That Changed Perceptions of Israel: ‘What’s Left Is a System Run by Activists’: “The press has been gutted. The bureaus have shrunk, and into that vacuum have come ideological voices,” says Matti Friedman – Sharon Waxman, The Wrap
A Psychologist Explains The Rise Of ‘Popcorn Brain’ – Forbes
South Korea’s birth rate is so low, one company offers staff a $75,000 incentive to have children – CBS News
X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week
The Army Corp of Engineers delivers a timeline on getting the Baltimore port back open.
Graham Allison, of “Thucydides Trap” fame, describes his recent meeting with Xi.
Satire of the week
$5 Umbrella Doing The Best It Can, All Right? – Onion
Father Unaware He Been Pushing Empty Stroller For Past 8 Blocks – Onion
Civil War Erupts In Southern Town As Two First Baptist Churches Open – Babylon Bee
Old Fogies Reminiscing About Good Ol’ Days Forget We Have Doritos Locos Tacos Now – Babylon Bee
STUDY: Serving Size of Bag Should Be Bag – Reductress
Woman Who Reads One Book per Week Still Can’t Read the Room – Reductress
Kanye West Accused by Workers of Acting Like Kanye West – The Hard Drive
Media Who Wanted You To Obsess Over Whereabouts Of Kate Middleton Now Want You Outraged About Same Thing – Waterford Whispers News
Thanks for reading!