The Outsider Perspective Issue 384 | The Beltway Outsiders

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Good Friday Morning! Except for Kentucky fans, who took the brunt of the first day of March Madness. According to ESPN, only 0.008% of the 22 million brackets submitted to them are still perfect after the first slate of Thursday games. I am not one of them. If you are, I hope you play the lottery.

This week, I will dive into the economy and the state of the race and how those two interact with each other as it relates to Biden—links to follow.

Quick Hits:

I’ve been pondering the following quote from Tim Ferris this week. He explains it here: “You are the average of the five people you associate with most.” I appreciated a response that someone said this is good always to ensure you’re raising your own game and helping raise others around you.
AI continues advancing at breakneck speed. I’ve been testing a new model called Claude Opus 3 for various writing tasks. It can write high-end novel-length stories without a problem. I’d emphasize the word capable because AI is still a tool you must point and direct. It’s still readily capable of garbage. The other areas that are blowing me away are video/audio. OpenAI released a program called Sora, which generates video. Aside from a little uncanny valley feeling with some of the video clips, I cannot tell if it’s fake. I linked to an X/Twitter thread of examples. It legitimately blows my mind. And some of the tools I’ve seen with movie creators are stunning. Imagine sticking a face to Siri and having her deliver personalized news service to you. That’s not far off. AI is pushing through some significant upgrades every six months or so. It’s unreal to watch as it happens. This is one of the fastest technological developments I can remember seeing. A while back, I wrote about how I noticed a proliferation of AI-created models on Instagram, triggering me to leave. There are now step-by-step instructions on how to do that via YouTube tutorials. Some of these AI models are making four to five figures a month. AI is not a fad. There’s a legitimate technological revolution happening across every industry because of this tech.

Where you can find me this week

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Explosive White House Infighting Confirms Trump Is Leading – Conservative Institute

In Praise Of Normalcy In Middle America – Conservative Institute

Anti-Trump Lawfare Is Destroying The Rule Of Law – Conservative Institute

Reality And The Economy Settle In For the White House

All the spin related to the State of the Union has finally quieted, which means we’re getting a realistic view of it from journalists around the White House. My immediate takeaway was that it would quiet Biden’s base, which wanted him out but wouldn’t impact the polls or his campaign.

Politico confirmed that view in a report on Thursday headlined: “Biden camp feels a reprieve from Democratic unease: Democrats who had been vocal about their concerns say the president, and his State of the Union address, has calmed those anxieties.”

Politico reports:

Anxiety levels among influential Democrats over Joe Biden’s place atop the ticket have begun to ebb, with even some of the party’s loudest fretters saying that he’s taken the steps needed to calm their nerves.

A combination of a more vigorous campaign schedule and a rousing State of the Union address has left top party operatives more comfortable with the current state of the campaign, even if it has yet to produce a more meaningful bump in the polls.

“The State of the Union rarely provides much of a bounce,” said David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to then-President Barack Obama. “What was absolutely essential was that Biden show enough spark to quell the panic among his supporters, and he certainly did that.”

My other takeaway was that this crowd will be quiet—for now. Biden bought himself time, not a get-out-of-jail-free card. It also helps that Democrats have had a few weeks to gloat about some of Trump’s legal issues.

Keep that note in your mind as the election goes on. I don’t have a feel for how much rope Democrats are giving Biden, but polling suggests it won’t be a long one. Speaking of, Trump continues his lead in the RealClearPoltitics average. He’s nearing seven consecutive months of leading the averages.

However, one poll in that average will raise alarms everywhere. Ann Selzer released a national survey. She’s one of the best pollsters in the country, and it’s one of the worst polls I’ve seen for Biden:

If the race were held today, Trump would be the favorite of 45% of likely voters, in contrast to just 38% saying they would vote for Biden. Trump leads among likely voters who identify as independent, with 43% for Trump and 27% for Biden – but 23% of this group say they would vote for someone else.

“Our snapshot of the national electorate shows President Biden in deep trouble. Compared to our polling last fall, Donald Trump’s position has grown stronger, while Joe Biden’s has deteriorated,” said Hanson. “Meanwhile, Democrats have lost the enthusiasm advantage they held prior to the 2020 election, when 88% of Democrats said they would definitely vote. That number has fallen to 76%, giving Republicans a narrow edge in the pool of likely voters.”

Only 34% of Americans approve of President Biden’s job performance and a new high majority of 57% disapprove of how he is doing his job.

To call these alarming numbers is an understatement. Joe Biden does not have the support of his own base. He’s quieted the opinion columnist set in Washington D.C., but everything else is on fire. Selzer has the election in a Trump +7 environment, which would be a wipeout territory for Democrats.

Will it be that come Election Day? No. The averages are saying Trump +2 right now, and I’ll stick with that. But these outliers tell a story that there’s more panic underneath the averages on the far left than they want to let on.

One of the issues impacting the White House is the economy. There’s a line that Democrats are trying to hit hard this month. They keep comparing March 2020 with the present, asking people if they’re better off. If you look at any polls, Americans hate Biden’s performance on the economy. However, Democrats are correct on this narrow point: everyone is better off now than in March 2020. This is an obvious point; it’s also utterly irrelevant.

To my Democratic friends: you’re making the wrong comparison. People aren’t comparing themselves economically to March 2020 – a pandemic no one saw coming. They’re comparing themselves to the pre-pandemic era – aka 2019 – to the present. The question is not, “Were you better off four years ago?” Their real question is: “Are you better off now than you were five years ago?”

That’s an easy “NO” for most people to answer. Interest rates are ridiculous. Inflation is still here. Check anyone’s grocery bill, and you will get an extremely negative response.

There’s another concerning issue: consumer debt. Bloomberg News released a report earlier this month with the headline: “Americans Now Pay as Much Interest on Other Debt as on Mortgages: Bills for consumer debt service hit record high this year. Mortgage burden still near historic lows with locked-in deals.”

For the first time ever, Americans are paying nearly as much interest on non-mortgage-related items as on an actual house mortgage. This means car loans, student loans, credit cards, and more are taking up nearly as much space as interest payments on mortgages.

The Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates at peak levels because inflation is still present, so the pain continues. I expect the Fed to cut rates this year, especially right before the election. Still, they won’t be able to claim victory over inflation.

But until that point, we’re sitting here at what the Fed thinks are maximum interest rates, waiting for the economy to be able to handle lower rates. Biden is trying to claim victory now and tell everyone everything is excellent! But no one is biting. They all remember 2019. Biden’s accomplishments look poor when you measure by five years instead of four.

Links of the week

Senators get “shocking” look at TikTok’s spy potential – Axios

Indicted Sen. Bob Menendez declines reelection as Democrat, may run as independent: Menendez’s announcement comes days before New Jersey’s Democratic filing deadline on March 25. – Politico

The Fed’s Conundrum: Interest Rates Are Both Too High—and Too Low: Short-term rates are sharply higher. Long-term rates are steadier. What’s a central bank to do? – WSJ

Johnson plans to invite Netanyahu to address Congress: The planned invite comes amid continuing fallout from Chuck Schumer’s speech criticizing the Israeli leader’s handling of the Gaza war. – Politico

Chief Librarian Fired After Writing Column Calling For Diversity Of Viewpoints In Books – Niagara Now

Supreme Court allows Texas to enforce immigration law: The Biden administration sued to block the law, saying it tramples on the federal government’s exclusive authority to oversee immigration issues. – NBC News

Trump’s invite to major donors prioritizes the committee paying his legal bills over the RNC – AP

AOC Is Pushing A Green New Deal For Public Housing. It Calls For EV Chargers, Removing Gas Stoves And More – Daily Caller

Who Is in Charge at The New York Times? The Gray Lady’s top brass has lost patience with the newsroom activists. But will their crackdown work? Eli Lake investigates. – The FP

Why Do Men Dominate Chess? FIDE’s new policy governing who can compete in women’s categories highlights the persistent sex imbalance at the game’s elite levels. – Quillette

Google’s Woke AI Wasn’t a Mistake. We Know. We Were There: ‘I walked around every day at work policing my own actions and language.’ Google’s culture is broken, former employees tell The Free Press. Can it be fixed? – The FP